A test of Conserving Nature's Stage: protecting a diversity of geophysical traits can also support a diversity of species at a landscape scale.

Conserving Nature's Stage (CNS) is a concept from conservation planning that promotes the protection of areas encompassing a broad range of enduring geophysical traits to provide long-term habitat for diverse species. The efficacy of using enduring geophysical characteristics as surrogates for biodiversity, independent of non-geophysical features and when considering finer resolution area selections, has yet to be investigated. Here, we evaluated CNS using 33 fine-scale inventories of vascular plant, non-vascular plant, invertebrate or vertebrate species from 13 areas across three continents. For each inventory, we estimated a continuous multidimensional surrogate defined from topographic and soil estimates of the surveyed plots. We assessed surrogate effectiveness by comparing the species representation of surrogate selected plots to the representation from plots picked randomly and using species information. We then used correlation coefficients to assess the link between the performance and qualities of the inventories, surroundings and surrogates. The CNS surrogate showed positive performance for 24 of the 33 inventories, and among these tests, represented 28 more species than random and 83% of the total number of species on average. We also found a small number of weak correlations between performance and environmental variability, as well as qualities of the surrogate. Our study demonstrates that prioritizing areas for a variety of geophysical characteristics will, in most cases, promote the representation of species. Our findings also point to areas for future research that might enhance CNS surrogacy. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.

Comparative analysis between mercury levels in fish tissues evaluated using direct mercury analyzer and inductively plasma-coupled mass spectrometer.

Recent ecotoxicological studies have indicated mercury (Hg) contamination in aquatic ecosystems in the Amazon Basin. Although Hg contamination can be associated with small-scale gold mining, the soils of the Amazon region have naturally high Hg concentrations, and can be transported to aquatic ecosystems via deforestation and mining activities. Biomagnification of Hg can pose risks to the local human population; therefore, its concentration in fish tissues must be monitored consistently. Fast and sensitive Hg determination is required for continuously monitoring ecosystems impacted by mineral exploration. The direct mercury analyzer (DMA-80) is widely used for determining total Hg levels in tissue samples; it is fast and cost-effective, without requiring sample preparation. Here, we determined the sensitivity and specificity of Hg detection accomplished using DMA-80, and whether these results are reliable compared to those obtained using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (ICP-MS), which is the gold standard. We obtained 106 paired dried samples of muscle tissue from fish species occupying different trophic levels in the Lower Amazon region, and analyzed them using both equipment (DMA-80 and ICP-MS). The results obtained using DMA-80 had an overall Hg mean of 1.90 ± 0.18 mg/kg which was higher (p < 0.05) than the mean of those obtained using ICP-MS (1.55 ± 0.13 mg/kg). Linear regression analysis comparing the Hg levels obtained using both devices was within the 95% prediction interval, and a high coefficient of correlation showed agreement between the devices (r = 0.979; 0.069 to 0.986, 95% CI). Bland-Altman analysis showed that DMA-80 had a positive bias of 6.5% in relation to ICP-MS, which is more evident in samples with high Hg concentrations. DMA-80 was efficient in determining whether the Hg levels exceeded the maximum allowed levels required by the European Union, USA, and Brazil, showing a specificity and sensitivity of above 95%.

Electrode Impact on the Electrical Breakdown of Dielectric Elastomer Thin Films.

Dielectric Elastomer Actuators (DEAs) enable the realization of energy-efficient and compact actuator systems. DEAs operate at the kilovolt range with typically microampere-level currents and hence minimize thermal losses in comparison to low voltage/high current actuators such as shape memory alloys or solenoids. The main limiting factor for reaching high energy density in high voltage applications is dielectric breakdown. In previous investigations on silicone-based thin films, we reported that not only do environmental conditions and film parameters such as pre-stretch play an important role but that electrode composition also has a significant impact on the breakdown behavior. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of electrical breakdown on thin silicone films coated with electrodes manufactured by five different methods: screen printing, inkjet printing, pad printing, gold sputtering, and nickel sputtering. For each method, breakdown was studied under environmental conditions ranging from 1 °C to 80 °C and 10% to 90% relative humidity. The effect of different manufacturing methods was analyzed as was the influence of parameters such as solvents, silicone content, and the particle processing method. The breakdown field increases with increasing temperature and decreases with increasing humidity for all electrode types. The stiffer metal electrodes have a higher breakdown field than the carbon-based electrodes, for which particle size also plays a large role.

Relationship between the distribution of vegetation and the environment in the coastal embryo dunes of Jalisco, México.

Background: The poorly developed soils of the embryo dunes imply little capacity for plant support, however, the adaptation mechanisms of plants respond sensitively to environmental variations, even when these variations are small, which results in a set of specialized habitats and flora that are rarely shared with other terrestrial ecosystems. The coastal dunes of the Mexican Pacific remain vaguely studied, this is why this research explored the relationship between environmental properties and the presence of plant species in the embryo dunes of the coast of Jalisco, Mexico. Methods: Twenty-nine sites were sampled, one or two sites per embryo dune, with a random stratified design. Geomorphological and vegetation data were collected at site. Laboratory determinations included soil color, particle size, organic matter, pH, electrical conductivity, magnetite content, and moisture retention. Statistical analysis included correlation analysis to identify relationships between environmental variables; principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis to group dune sites by environmental properties; canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine a possible significant relationship between the presence of plant species and environmental variables; cluster analysis to group dune sites by presence/absence of plant species and correlate both clusters to validate the relationship between them, the salient aspects of this relationship were described and the spatial distribution of the groups was mapped. Results: Eleven plant species were identified, six of them exclusive to the embryo dunes and the rest ubiquitous. The incipient development of these soils is reflected in a low content of organic matter, silt, clay, and moisture retention, with scattered data on granulometry, electrical conductivity, organic matter, and magnetite. Some significant correlations were found between some environmental properties, and the CCA showed a significant relationship between the presence of plant species and environmental variables (p-value of the Monte Carlo test = 0.026). The cluster analysis of dune sites according to environmental variables and the cluster analysis by presence/absence of plant species produces the formation of five groups of sites with significant environmental differences and five groups of sites with significant floristic differences. A significant connection (r = 0.471, p = 0.01) between the two clustering schemes also evidences the meaningful relationship between the presence of plant species and the environmental characteristics of the embryo dunes of Jalisco, Mexico. Differences in habitat preferences were observed among plant species exclusive to the embryo dunes; thus, Abronia maritima, Uniola pittieri, and Pectis arenaria showed a preference for embryo dunes with poor edaphic conditions, in contrast to Okenia hypogaea, Canavalia rosea, and Scaevola plumieri, which were mostly found in embryo dunes with higher fertility.

Highly Stretchable Silicone Elastomer Applied in Soft Actuators.

In this work, a highly stretchable silicone elastomer is incorporated into dielectric elastomer actuators (DEAs) in order to decrease operation voltages by applying high prestretches. Results show that the fabricated DEAs (5 mm diameter circle active region) can be actuated to a lateral strain of 30% at 4.3 kV for a 122 µm thick prestretched film, and to a lateral strain of 2.5% at only 250 V for a 6.9 µm thick prestretched film. Due to the significant viscous component of the silicone elastomer, the DEAs respond more slowly (2-14 s to reach 90% of full strain) and show greater strain changes over time compared to conventional silicone-based DEAs. While this inherent viscosity is not universally favorable, it can be advantageous in applications where actuator damping is desirable. The studied DEAs' mean lifetimes under DC actuation range significantly-from 0.9 h to more than 123.0 h-depending mainly on initial electrical fields (17.8-36.3 V µm-1 ). For instance, DEAs with a 150 µm initial thickness and a prestretch ratio of 3 show 1.4-2.6% lateral strains for the mean lifetime (123.0 h) at only 300 V. Given the strains achieved at low voltage, such DEAs show promise for applications that do not require fast response speeds.

Fish tissues for biomonitoring toxic and essential trace elements in the Lower Amazon.

Brazilian soils can have high concentrations of toxic elements, mainly mercury (Hg) and arsenic (As), metals also associated with anthropogenic activities (e.g. intensive agriculture, mining, deforestation and hydroelectric plants). This can lead to large amounts of these elements reaching and/or being mobilized in the aquatic ecosystem, which constitutes a serious threat to the environment and to the health of local populations. Thus, we evaluate the feasibility of analyzing the tissues of freshwater fish species for monitoring toxic and trace element accumulation within the aquatic ecosystem in the Lower Amazon, Brazil. Two fish species were considered: Cichla temensis (Tucunaré), a carnivorous species, and Pterygoplichthys pardalis (Acari), a detritivorous species. Samples of liver and muscle from both species were evaluated in relation to their potential use for biomonitoring purposes. The study findings clearly demonstrate the value these fish species and tissues, particularly liver, for biomonitoring toxic and trace element concentrations in the aquatic environment across the study region. While Tucunaré liver proved the best option for biomonitoring elements that accumulate through the food chain (e.g. Hg), Acari liver better reflected elements that typically accumulate in the sediments (e.g. As). Moreover, the trace element profiles, determined using chemometric (multivariate) techniques, differed greatly in specimens from waters in the Andean mountain range (sampling sites located in the main course of the Amazon River) with high sediment concentrations, and in specimens from the Guyana and Brazilian shields (Porto Trombetas on the Trombetas River and Itaituba on the Tapajós River). The findings also indicate that deposition of elements in freshwater fish in this area is mainly associated with the geological origin of the soils and that large amounts of toxic elements can reach the aquatic ecosystem due to anthropogenic activities, thereby posing a serious danger to the environment and the health of the riverside communities.

Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction of Cochemiea halei (Cactaceae), an island endemic, serpentine-adapted plant species at risk of extinction.

AIM: Threats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of Cochemiea halei, an endemic island cactus. This taxon is of conservation concern, currently listed as vulnerable on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List and as a species of special concern under Mexican federal law. The goals of this study are to (a) identify the correlations between climate variables and current suitable habitat for C. halei; (b) determine whether the species is a serpentine endemic or has a facultative relationship with ultramafic soils; and (c) predict range changes of the species based on climate change scenarios. LOCATION: The island archipelago in Bahía Magdalena on the Pacific coast, Baja California Sur, Mexico. METHODS: We used temperature and precipitation variables at 30-arc second resolution and soil type, employing multiple species distribution modeling methods, to identify important climate and soil conditions driving current habitat suitability. The best model of current suitability is used to predict possible effects of four climate change scenarios based on best-case to worst-case representative concentration pathways, with projected climate data from two general circulation models, over two time periods. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling.

Toxic and essential trace element concentrations in fish species in the Lower Amazon, Brazil.

The Lower Amazon region (Western Pará, northern Brazil) is greatly affected by mining exploitations (particularly artisanal gold mines) and other industrial and intensive agricultural activities with potentially strong impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Although such impacts include contamination with various toxic elements, to date only the effects of Hg have been considered. In this study, toxic and trace element concentrations were determined in the flesh of 351 fish specimens, including detritivores (Acarí, Pterygoplichthys pardalis), omnivores (Piranha, Pygocentrus nattereri; Pirarucu, Arapaima sp.) and carnivores (Caparari, Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum; Tucunaré, Cichla ocellaris), during the dry and wet seasons in 2015 and 2016. The range of concentrations of toxic element residues were 2-238 µg/kg fresh weight for As, 1-77 µg/kg for Cd, 4-1922 µg/kg for Hg and 1-30 µg/kg for Pb. Only the maximum concentrations of Hg established in the Brazilian legislation for fish destined for human consumption (0.5 mg/kg) were exceeded (in 16% of carnivorous species). The large between-species and seasonal differences observed for all these toxic elements are probably related to the seasonal behaviour and dietary habits of the different fish species. By contrast, essential trace element concentrations were low and not related to seasonal or dietary factors, and the observed differences may be at least partly related to the metabolism of each species. The associations between Hg and the essential trace elements Se, Fe, Co and Mn deserve special attention, as these trace elements may play a role in Hg cycling and methylation and merit further evaluation with the aim of reducing Hg toxicity in aquatic environments.

The role of rarity as a surrogate of marine fish species representation.

Because the distribution of most of the species is poorly known, conservationists use surrogates to help maximize the representation level of all species. Historically, species richness has been used to calculate the importance of priority areas for conservation, but several studies revealed sites with high species richness often fail to determine the smallest number of sites that will protect the highest number of species. Rarity, however, has played a prominent role in safeguarding planning units. While the performance of rarity has been previously assessed in terrestrial systems, we tested the hypothesis that rarity of a site can be used as a measure of the importance of a site to a conservation network in marine ecosystems. We used the presence data (at a 1-degree resolution) to calculate five rarity indices of fish diversity at a global extent and compared the results to those obtained by using species richness and site complementarity. Our objectives were to: (1) determine if rarity indices can be used as surrogates of fish biodiversity by representing the highest number of species in the smallest number of sites; and (2) determine if the effectiveness of these indices to represent fish biodiversity is impacted by the metric used to define rarity. Results indicate that rarity could be an effective surrogate for marine fishes, as most results showed a mean of 100% effectiveness. In the context of marine biodiversity conservation, results show that rarity indices could be considered affordable and feasible surrogates of species representation, with the most significant benefit to those areas of the world that are in most need to access alternative tools. Results also open a new area of collaboration between biogeography and marine conservation biology since planners can use biogeographical patterns of rarity to enhance the performance of the current protected area network.

Potential changes in the distribution of Carnegiea gigantea under future scenarios.

Over the last decades several studies have identified that the directional changes in climate induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the ecology of desert ecosystems. In the Southwest United States, the impacts of climate change to plant abundance and distribution have already been reported, including in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem, home of the iconic Saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea). Hence, there is an urgent need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the saguaro. The goals of this study are to provide a map of actual habitat suitability (1), describe the relationships between abiotic predictors and the saguaro distribution at regional extents (2), and describe the potential effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of the saguaro (3). Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the relationships between abiotic variables and the Saguaro distribution. SDMs were calibrated using presence records, 2,000 randomly-generated pseudo absences, and ten abiotic variables. Of these, annual precipitation and max temperature of the warmest month was found to have the greatest relative influence on saguaro distribution. SDMs indicated that 6.9% and 8.1% of the current suitable habitat is predicted to be lost by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Therefore, predicted changes in climate may result in a substantial contraction of the suitable habitat for saguaro over the next century. By identifying the drivers of saguaro distribution and assessing potential changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, this study will help practitioners to design more comprehensive strategies to conserve the saguaro in the face of climate change.

Improving the use of environmental diversity as a surrogate for species representation.

The continuous p-median approach to environmental diversity (ED) is a reliable way to identify sites that efficiently represent species. A recently developed maximum dispersion (maxdisp) approach to ED is computationally simpler, does not require the user to reduce environmental space to two dimensions, and performed better than continuous p-median for datasets of South African animals. We tested whether maxdisp performs as well as continuous p-median for 12 datasets that included plants and other continents, and whether particular types of environmental variables produced consistently better models of ED. We selected 12 species inventories and atlases to span a broad range of taxa (plants, birds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians), spatial extents, and resolutions. For each dataset, we used continuous p-median ED and maxdisp ED in combination with five sets of environmental variables (five combinations of temperature, precipitation, insolation, NDVI, and topographic variables) to select environmentally diverse sites. We used the species accumulation index (SAI) to evaluate the efficiency of ED in representing species for each approach and set of environmental variables. Maxdisp ED represented species better than continuous p-median ED in five of 12 biodiversity datasets, and about the same for the other seven biodiversity datasets. Efficiency of ED also varied with type of variables used to define environmental space, but no particular combination of variables consistently performed best. We conclude that maxdisp ED performs at least as well as continuous p-median ED, and has the advantage of faster and simpler computation. Surprisingly, using all 38 environmental variables was not consistently better than using subsets of variables, nor did any subset emerge as consistently best or worst; further work is needed to identify the best variables to define environmental space. Results can help ecologists and conservationists select sites for species representation and assist in conservation planning.

Diversity and Pathogenicity of Rhizoctonia Species from the Brazilian Cerrado.

Eighty-one Rhizoctonia-like isolates were identified based on morphology and nuclei-staining methods from natural and agricultural soils of the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna). The nucleotide similarity analysis of ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 regions identified 14 different taxa, with 39.5% of isolates assigned to Waitea circinata (zeae, oryzae, and circinata varieties), while 37.0% belonged to Thanatephorus cucumeris anastomosis groups (AGs) AG1-IB, AG1-ID, AG1-IE, AG4-HGI, and AG4-HGIII. Ceratobasidium spp. AG-A, AG-F, AG-Fa, AG-P, and AG-R comprised 23.5%. Rhizoctonia zeae (19.8%), R. solani AG1-IE (18.6%), and binucleate Rhizoctonia AG-A (8.6%) were the most frequent anamorphic states found. Root rot severity caused by the different taxa varied from low to high on common beans, and tended to be low to average in maize. Twenty-two isolates were pathogenic to both hosts, suggesting difficulties in managing Rhizoctonia root rots with crop rotation. These results suggest that cropping history affects the geographical arrangement of AGs, with a prevalence of AG1 in the tropical zone from central to north Brazil while the AG4 group was most prevalent from central to subtropical south. W. circinata var. zeae was predominant in soils under maize production. To our knowledge, this is the first report on the occurrence of W. circinata var. circinata in Brazil.

The geography of hotspots of rarity-weighted richness of birds and their coverage by Natura 2000.

A major challenge for biogeographers and conservation planners is to identify where to best locate or distribute high-priority areas for conservation and to explore whether these areas are well represented by conservation actions such as protected areas (PAs). We aimed to identify high-priority areas for conservation, expressed as hotpots of rarity-weighted richness (HRR)-sites that efficiently represent species-for birds across EU countries, and to explore whether HRR are well represented by the Natura 2000 network. Natura 2000 is an evolving network of PAs that seeks to conserve biodiversity through the persistence of the most patrimonial species and habitats across Europe. This network includes Sites of Community Importance (SCI) and Special Areas of Conservation (SAC), where the latter regulated the designation of Special Protected Areas (SPA). Distribution maps for 416 bird species and complementarity-based approaches were used to map geographical patterns of rarity-weighted richness (RWR) and HRR for birds. We used species accumulation index to evaluate whether RWR was efficient surrogates to identify HRRs for birds. The results of our analysis support the proposition that prioritizing sites in order of RWR is a reliable way to identify sites that efficiently represent birds. HRRs were concentrated in the Mediterranean Basin and alpine and boreal biogeographical regions of northern Europe. The cells with high RWR values did not correspond to cells where Natura 2000 was present. We suggest that patterns of RWR could become a focus for conservation biogeography. Our analysis demonstrates that identifying HRR is a robust approach for prioritizing management actions, and reveals the need for more conservation actions, especially on HRR.

Predicted rarity-weighted richness, a new tool to prioritize sites for species representation.

Lack of biodiversity data is a major impediment to prioritizing sites for species representation. Because comprehensive species data are not available in any planning area, planners often use surrogates (such as vegetation communities, or mapped occurrences of a well-inventoried taxon) to prioritize sites. We propose and demonstrate the effectiveness of predicted rarity-weighted richness (PRWR) as a surrogate in situations where species inventories may be available for a portion of the planning area. Use of PRWR as a surrogate involves several steps. First, rarity-weighted richness (RWR) is calculated from species inventories for a q% subset of sites. Then random forest models are used to model RWR as a function of freely available environmental variables for that q% subset. This function is then used to calculate PRWR for all sites (including those for which no species inventories are available), and PRWR is used to prioritize all sites. We tested PRWR on plant and bird datasets, using the species accumulation index to measure efficiency of PRWR. Sites with the highest PRWR represented species with median efficiency of 56% (range 32%-77% across six datasets) when q = 20%, and with median efficiency of 39% (range 20%-63%) when q = 10%. An efficiency of 56% means that selecting sites in order of PRWR rank was 56% as effective as having full knowledge of species distributions in PRWR's ability to improve on the number of species represented in the same number of randomly selected sites. Our results suggest that PRWR may be able to help prioritize sites to represent species if a planner has species inventories for 10%-20% of the sites in the planning area.

Downscaling patterns of complementarity to a finer resolution and its implications for conservation prioritization.

Given species inventories of all sites in a planning area, integer programming or heuristic algorithms can prioritize sites in terms of the site's complementary value, that is, the ability of the site to complement (add unrepresented species to) other sites prioritized for conservation. The utility of these procedures is limited because distributions of species are typically available only as coarse atlases or range maps, whereas conservation planners need to prioritize relatively small sites. If such coarse-resolution information can be used to identify small sites that efficiently represent species (i.e., downscaled), then such data can be useful for conservation planning. We develop and test a new type of surrogate for biodiversity, which we call downscaled complementarity. In this approach, complementarity values from large cells are downscaled to small cells, using statistical methods or simple map overlays. We illustrate our approach for birds in Spain by building models at coarse scale (50 × 50 km atlas of European birds, and global range maps of birds interpreted at the same 50 × 50 km grid size), using this model to predict complementary value for 10 × 10 km cells in Spain, and testing how well-prioritized cells represented bird distributions in an independent bird atlas of those 10 × 10 km cells. Downscaled complementarity was about 63-77% as effective as having full knowledge of the 10-km atlas data in its ability to improve on random selection of sites. Downscaled complementarity has relatively low data acquisition cost and meets representation goals well compared with other surrogates currently in use. Our study justifies additional tests to determine whether downscaled complementarity is an effective surrogate for other regions and taxa, and at spatial resolution finer than 10 × 10 km cells. Until such tests have been completed, we caution against assuming that any surrogate can reliably prioritize sites for species representation.

Evaluating ß Diversity as a Surrogate for Species Representation at Fine Scale.

Species turnover or ß diversity is a conceptually attractive surrogate for conservation planning. However, there has been only 1 attempt to determine how well sites selected to maximize ß diversity represent species, and that test was done at a scale too coarse (2,500 km2 sites) to inform most conservation decisions. We used 8 plant datasets, 3 bird datasets, and 1 mammal dataset to evaluate whether sites selected to span ß diversity will efficiently represent species at finer scale (sites sizes < 1 ha to 625 km2). We used ordinations to characterize dissimilarity in species assemblages (ß diversity) among plots (inventory data) or among grid cells (atlas data). We then selected sites to maximize ß diversity and used the Species Accumulation Index, SAI, to evaluate how efficiently the surrogate (selecting sites for maximum ß diversity) represented species in the same taxon. Across all 12 datasets, sites selected for maximum ß diversity represented species with a median efficiency of 24% (i.e., the surrogate was 24% more effective than random selection of sites), and an interquartile range of 4% to 41% efficiency. ß diversity was a better surrogate for bird datasets than for plant datasets, and for atlas datasets with 10-km to 14-km grid cells than for atlas datasets with 25-km grid cells. We conclude that ß diversity is more than a mere descriptor of how species are distributed on the landscape; in particular ß diversity might be useful to maximize the complementarity of a set of sites. Because we tested only within-taxon surrogacy, our results do not prove that ß diversity is useful for conservation planning. But our results do justify further investigation to identify the circumstances in which ß diversity performs well, and to evaluate it as a cross-taxon surrogate.

Detecting fragmentation extinction thresholds for forest understory plant species in peninsular Spain.

Ecological theory predicts that fragmentation aggravates the effects of habitat loss, yet empirical results show mixed evidences, which fail to support the theory instead reinforcing the primary importance of habitat loss. Fragmentation hypotheses have received much attention due to their potential implications for biodiversity conservation, however, animal studies have traditionally been their main focus. Here we assess variation in species sensitivity to forest amount and fragmentation and evaluate if fragmentation is related to extinction thresholds in forest understory herbs and ferns. Our expectation was that forest herbs would be more sensitive to fragmentation than ferns due to their lower dispersal capabilities. Using forest cover percentage and the proportion of this percentage occurring in the largest patch within UTM cells of 10-km resolution covering Peninsular Spain, we partitioned the effects of forest amount versus fragmentation and applied logistic regression to model occurrences of 16 species. For nine models showing robustness according to a set of quality criteria we subsequently defined two empirical fragmentation scenarios, minimum and maximum, and quantified species' sensitivity to forest contraction with no fragmentation, and to fragmentation under constant forest cover. We finally assessed how the extinction threshold of each species (the habitat amount below which it cannot persist) varies under no and maximum fragmentation. Consistent with their preference for forest habitats probability occurrences of all species decreased as forest cover contracted. On average, herbs did not show significant sensitivity to fragmentation whereas ferns were favored. In line with theory, fragmentation yielded higher extinction thresholds for two species. For the remaining species, fragmentation had either positive or non-significant effects. We interpret these differences as reflecting species-specific traits and conclude that although forest amount is of primary importance for the persistence of understory plants, to neglect the impact of fragmentation for some species can lead them to local extinction.

Using abiotic variables to predict importance of sites for species representation.

In systematic conservation planning, species distribution data for all sites in a planning area are used to prioritize each site in terms of the site's importance toward meeting the goal of species representation. But comprehensive species data are not available in most planning areas and would be expensive to acquire. As a shortcut, ecologists use surrogates, such as occurrences of birds or another well-surveyed taxon, or land types defined from remotely sensed data, in the hope that sites that represent the surrogates also represent biodiversity. Unfortunately, surrogates have not performed reliably. We propose a new type of surrogate, predicted importance, that can be developed from species data for a q% subset of sites. With species data from this subset of sites, importance can be modeled as a function of abiotic variables available at no charge for all terrestrial areas on Earth. Predicted importance can then be used as a surrogate to prioritize all sites. We tested this surrogate with 8 sets of species data. For each data set, we used a q% subset of sites to model importance as a function of abiotic variables, used the resulting function to predict importance for all sites, and evaluated the number of species in the sites with highest predicted importance. Sites with the highest predicted importance represented species efficiently for all data sets when q = 25% and for 7 of 8 data sets when q = 20%. Predicted importance requires less survey effort than direct selection for species representation and meets representation goals well compared with other surrogates currently in use. This less expensive surrogate may be useful in those areas of the world that need it most, namely tropical regions with the highest biodiversity, greatest biodiversity loss, most severe lack of inventory data, and poorly developed protected area networks.

A review of selection-based tests of abiotic surrogates for species representation.

Because conservation planners typically lack data on where species occur, environmental surrogates--including geophysical settings and climate types--have been used to prioritize sites within a planning area. We reviewed 622 evaluations of the effectiveness of abiotic surrogates in representing species in 19 study areas. Sites selected using abiotic surrogates represented more species than an equal number of randomly selected sites in 43% of tests (55% for plants) and on average improved on random selection of sites by about 8% (21% for plants). Environmental diversity (ED) (42% median improvement on random selection) and biotically informed clusters showed promising results and merit additional testing. We suggest 4 ways to improve performance of abiotic surrogates. First, analysts should consider a broad spectrum of candidate variables to define surrogates, including rarely used variables related to geographic separation, distance from coast, hydrology, and within-site abiotic diversity. Second, abiotic surrogates should be defined at fine thematic resolution. Third, sites (the landscape units prioritized within a planning area) should be small enough to ensure that surrogates reflect species' environments and to produce prioritizations that match the spatial resolution of conservation decisions. Fourth, if species inventories are available for some planning units, planners should define surrogates based on the abiotic variables that most influence species turnover in the planning area. Although species inventories increase the cost of using abiotic surrogates, a modest number of inventories could provide the data needed to select variables and evaluate surrogates. Additional tests of nonclimate abiotic surrogates are needed to evaluate the utility of conserving nature's stage as a strategy for conservation planning in the face of climate change.

Environmental diversity as a surrogate for species representation.

Because many species have not been described and most species ranges have not been mapped, conservation planners often use surrogates for conservation planning, but evidence for surrogate effectiveness is weak. Surrogates are well-mapped features such as soil types, landforms, occurrences of an easily observed taxon (discrete surrogates), and well-mapped environmental conditions (continuous surrogate). In the context of reserve selection, the idea is that a set of sites selected to span diversity in the surrogate will efficiently represent most species. Environmental diversity (ED) is a rarely used surrogate that selects sites to efficiently span multivariate ordination space. Because it selects across continuous environmental space, ED should perform better than discrete surrogates (which necessarily ignore within-bin and between-bin heterogeneity). Despite this theoretical advantage, ED appears to have performed poorly in previous tests of its ability to identify 50 × 50 km cells that represented vertebrates in Western Europe. Using an improved implementation of ED, we retested ED on Western European birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, and combined terrestrial vertebrates. We also tested ED on data sets for plants of Zimbabwe, birds of Spain, and birds of Arizona (United States). Sites selected using ED represented European mammals no better than randomly selected cells, but they represented species in the other 7 data sets with 20% to 84% effectiveness. This far exceeds the performance in previous tests of ED, and exceeds the performance of most discrete surrogates. We believe ED performed poorly in previous tests because those tests considered only a few candidate explanatory variables and used suboptimal forms of ED's selection algorithm. We suggest future work on ED focus on analyses at finer grain sizes more relevant to conservation decisions, explore the effect of selecting the explanatory variables most associated with species turnover, and investigate whether nonclimate abiotic variables can provide useful surrogates in an ED framework.